2013-04-29 10:15:14
Data/Event Risks
数据／事件风险
USD: The first estimate of Q1 quarter GDP expected to show a 3.0% annualised gain, with a decent rebound in consumption anticipated. The last quarter was held back by weak government spending and inventories. The dollar has still displayed a strong positive correlation with data surprises (gaining on stronger than expected output), although this correlation has been declining, in part as data has weakened beyond the US (Europe and Asia).
EUR: The M3 data is rarely a market mover, but of interest for all the lending data that emerged for household and businesses, which often offers more colour on the state of the banking sector in Europe where more firms rely on the banking sector rather than capital markets for their financing needs.
美元：第一季度GDP首次估算希望能显示出3.0%的年度上涨，消费方面也期待能有显著反弹。最后一季度由于政府开支和库存低迷而被拖了后腿。美元和数据之间仍然有一种强大的正面相关性(数据比预期要好则上涨)，虽然这种相关性一直在衰退，这部分是因为美国以外地区(欧洲和亚洲)的数据已经疲软。
欧元：三月的数据对于市场几乎没什么影响，但是房屋和商业方面所有的借贷数据还是令人感兴趣。这些数据给欧洲银行业的状态涂抹了更多的颜色，因为欧洲的有越来越多的公司依赖于银行而不是资本市场来满足其金融需求。
Idea of the Day
今日看法
The strength of the single currency this week has been pretty remarkable, especially given the weak PMI and IFO data for Germany in the week increasing the perception that the ECB could well cut rates next week, or strongly indicate its intention to do so. There are two reasons why the euro has once again defied expectations. Firstly, the impact of a rate cut on actual market interest rates will be limited, as the excess liquidity already in place means that these are already low and near to zero. Secondly, the euro’s position as the second most liquid currency after the dollar continues to mean that its movements are more a liquidity/portfolio story, rather than one connected to the underlying ‘fundamentals’. As such, the modestly better tone to risk assets this week has seen the euro benefit, despite the growing feeling that rates may be cut further.
这个星期欧元的力量已经相当显著，特别是这一周德国疲软的PMI 和IFO 数据让我们越来越感觉到欧洲央行可能会在下周下调利率，至少是欧洲央行有强烈的意愿去这么做。欧元再次无视预期有两个原因。首先，利率下调对实际市场利率的影响会很有限，因为业已存在的过多流动性意味着利率其实已经很低，甚至接近于零。其次，作为美元之下第二最具流动性的货币，欧元的处境仍然意味着其变动更多和流动性／投资组合相关，而不是和“基本因素”相联系。因此，这个星期风险资产方面出现的温和利好局面对于欧元是有利的，虽然我们越来越觉得利率会进一步下调。
Latest FX News
最新外汇新闻
JPY:The CPI data was weaker than expected, headline falling 0.9% in year on year terms, with ex-fresh foot measure falling 0.5%. Also, Bank of Japan meeting revealed little new, the central bank maintaining its pledge to double the monetary base and achieve its 2% inflation goal. Yen modestly firmer in Asia, USDJPY moving down to a low of 98.23, since recovering towards 98.75.
EUR: German Chancellor Merkel suggesting that Germany needs higher rates, not lower rates, this coming as the ECB may well cut rates as early as next week. The single currency continues to hold tight to the 1.30 level on EURUSD.
AUD: The third day of gains for the Aussie, with a push back above 1.03 again, but has been dragging behind in what has been a general mixed week for the dollar.
日元：CPI 数据比预期要疲软，新闻报道同比去年下降了0.9%，除开生鲜的食品也下降了0.5%。日本银行的会议也揭露了一些新东西，央行仍然誓言要翻倍货币基数并完成2%的通胀目标。日元在亚洲交易期内更加稳定，美元日元在恢复到98.75后下降到低点98.23。
欧元：德国首相默克尔认为德国需要提高而不是降低利率，而欧洲央行可能最早在下周降低利率。欧元继续紧贴欧元美元的1.30水平。
澳元：澳元第三天上涨，再次回到1.03之上。但还是落在喜忧参半的美元之后。
FX Alerts
NZ TRADE BALANCE
新西兰贸易平衡
25/04/13@ 22:54 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk
http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130426/xinxilan-maoyi-pingheng
New Zealand reported a bigger than expected trade surplus in March. NZ said there was a surplus of 718 million for the month. Exports for the month were up 13.3 percent on the previous month.
新西兰报告说三月份的贸易顺差比预期要大。新西兰说当月的顺差达到7亿1千8百万。当月出口比上个月有13.3%的上涨。
FX Alerts
JPY CORE CPI
日元核心CPI
25/04/13@ 23:40 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk
http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130426/riyuan-hexin-cpi
Japan's core consumer prices fell 0.5 percent in March from a year earlier, suggesting the Bank of Japan faces a tough task to achieve its 2 percent inflation target.
三月份日本的核心消费价格与去年相比下降了0.5%，这表明日本银行2%的通胀目标是一个艰难的任务。
FX Alerts
BOJ MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
日本银行的货币政策声明
26/04/13@ 04:41 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk
http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130426/riben-yinhang-huobi-shengming
BOJ keeps monetary policy steady, pledging to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70 trln YEN
日本银行要维持货币政策的稳定，并誓言增加货币基数，每年增加60-70 万亿日元。
FX Alerts
USD WEAKER AFTER GDP DATA
GDP 数据发布后美元疲软
26/04/13@ 12:33 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist
http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130426/gdp-fabu-zhihou-meiyuan-piruan
EURGBP firmer by around 20 pips to 1.3020 after US GDP falls short of expectations, up 2.5% ann. in Q1 (expected 3.0%). USDJPY down to 98.40.
美国GDP 年增长2.5%，低于预期，欧元英镑更加稳定，到了1.3020；美元日元下降到98.40。
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